Hardy now being called up after 9/01
Buried in Adam McCalvy’s article on GM Doug Melvin’s rebuttal about the poor ’09 rotation, was the line that J.J. Hardy is now no longer going to be called up on September 1:
The Brewers do not intend to recall shortstop J.J. Hardy from Triple-A
Nashville before Sept. 1, and as a result, Hardy will not have the
Major League service time he needs to qualify for free agency following
next season. Instead, he’ll have an extra arbitration year before
reaching the open market in the winter of 2011.
Moot point, as Hardy would be guaranteed at least $2.6 million in 2010 if offered arbitration (or the maximum 20% reduction from his ’09 salary of $3.25 million)…odds are Melvin will try to find a team that is willing to agree to go to arbitration with him and take on at least $2.6 million. I doubt Melvin will find any takers, so look for the Brewers to not offer him arbitration and try to negotiate will him as a free agent, probably to take Craig Counsell’s spot…and look for Hardy to sign a 2-year deal for around $3 million somewhere else.
McCalvy also reported:
Manager Ken Macha met with Melvin on Friday afternoon to discuss
September callups. The plan calls for three pitchers, two infielders
and one outfielder, but those promotions will be staggered through the
first week of September, because the Triple-A Nashville Sounds are
bidding to make the playoffs. The Sounds’ regular season ends Sept. 7.
My guess is the three pitchers will be closer Chris Smith (on 9/01), Mike Burns (on 9/06), and Tim Dillard (on 9/08, of after the Sounds’ playoffs end). The two infielders will be Mat Gamel (on 9/01, so Casey McGehee can fill in at second, and Craig Counsell would fill in at shortstop) and J.J. Hardy (after the Sounds’ season ends and to showcase him a bit), which would leave Hernan Iribarren off the roster. The outfielder will likely be Corey Patterson (again, after the Sounds’ season ends). Of course, Melvin and Macha hope to activate Jesus Colome from the DL in early September, and Seth McClung and Corey Hart soon afterwards.
The Brewers’ elimination number is down to 22 (the number of Brewers’ losses and Cardinals’ wins needed to be mathematically eliminated from winning the division), so the Brewers can only afford to lose about 11 more games, at most (and only one or two of the nine against St. Louis). Eleven more losses would mean the Crew finishes 85-77–probably not good enough to make the playoffs, but a respectable finish to a mediocre season.
Brewers Bar 
I love how McCalvy tried to sneak that tidbit in that article like it was nothing, but it possibly has huge implications. I don’t think Hardy will be non-tendered if he’s not traded, but I also don’t think he’ll avoid arbitration like he did last season. This type of thing probably isn’t making him (or his agent) all that happy, so they’ll be inclined to get as much as they can in an arby hearing. Even if the Brewers have to take him to an arby hearing, he shouldn’t be in line for much of a raise.
With a second year of team control and a 2010 salary around $5 million, I think Melvin will find a few takers for Hardy. He’s not nearly as bad as he’s been playing this year, and the fact that he can provide as much power as he does from a usually weak-hitting position should net the Brewers at least a major league-ready prospect or a Dave Bush, middle-of-the-rotation type and maybe a prospect.
Boy, I hope you’re right…the fact that he is struggling in AAA isn’t helping his case.
Correction, of sorts–Adam McCalvy reported that the last day that Hardy could be called up to retain 2009 as a full year of service is Monday, August 31, not Tuesday, September 1; even if called up on Tuesday, Hardy’s free agency eligibility is pushed back until 2012.